Bernie is nothing but a plus for the Democrats – he is the perfect value-added candidate who, while pressing Clinton to the limit, demonstrates to the nation exactly why it would be better for adults to govern instead of the puerile, hysterical children the GOP has put up this year.
On the “brokered” GOP convention meme.
Ain’t gonna happen. The long and short of why it ain’t happenin’ is…Rules!
GOP candidates go trolling across America, sucking up on a daily basis for delegates in each state’s primary, caucus and barn dance; said delegates are awarded on either a winner-take-all or a proportional basis. All of the early contests (the ones mostly won by Trump so far), by GOP rules, must be proportional. Which means Teddy and Marco have managed to (so far) make the race “look” interesting.
However pretty soon that will change: the preponderance of the remaining GOP delegates will be awarded on a winner-take-all basis. Which means Teddy ain’t gonna get jack once the race moves outside of the Bible Belt. And who knows what happens with Rubio? If he loses Florida chances are he will hang up his dancing shoes and go sit in a dark, quiet room for a while.
Further, GOP delegates are either “bound” or “unbound”, with bound delegates forced to vote (at least on the first ballot) for the candidate that “won” them in a primary. Unbound delegates can vote for any candidate they choose. If a candidate drops out of the race his bound delegates become unbound.
The GOP nomination goes to the candidate gets a simple majority of available delegates, which comes to 1,237.
I don’t have to tell you the GOP delegate count as of today – it’s everywhere. Suffice to say Trump has a handy lead over Teddy and Marco. Should he reach the magic number, even with primaries left, the race is really already over.
Finally –because this IS the GOP– there are a couple of not well known internal rules in play:
- No candidate can be nominated without winning a majority of delegates in at least eight states. 1
- The GOP can alter its rules at the convention without waiting until the next before changes take effect. 2
Which means someone(s) other than Trump must collect enough delegates to prevent Trump from reaching the Magic Number. If that happened the first ballot would be unlikely to produce a victor (especially as hated within the Party as Teddy is) and a circus would ensue.
Or…or they could CHANGE ALL THE RULES! 3 Sure, it would be akin to throwing the baby out with the bath water, but there’s an off-chance the old GOP power brokers who have had the whip hand forever run the GOP forever may believe it worth it to make sure someone they can control gets the nomination. 4
Which means if Trump hits the magic number the only way the GOP can stop him from “ruining the party” is by entirely blowing up the party. I don’t see that happening. 5
But you know what? Watching the growing fear and loathing among the GOP over the next few months will be delicious.
Time to go to COSTO and pickup another 6-pound bin of popcorn.
Random thought on Trump: has anyone ever seen him give a real speech? You know, with a theme and structure and facts? Or does he just always fling shit on the wall?