ReThug Betfair

Soooo…how do the punters view the ReThugs chances in the 2016 election stakes? Let’s go to Betfair for an analysis…

Republicans

Name ReThug Nomination General Election Conditional*
Jeb Bush 33.7% 14.8% 43.9%
Donald Trump 11.5% 6.1% 52.8%
Marco Rubio 18.0% 7.8% 43.5%
Carly Fiorina 9.6% 3.9% 40.9%
Chris Christie 3.6% 2.1% 58.8%
Ben Carson 4.9% 1.9% 39.7%
John Kasich 3.3% 1.5% 44.9%
Mike Huckabee 1.4% 1.1% 79.7%
Ted Cruz 3.9% 0.9% 24.4%
Rand Paul 0.4% 0.2% 44.9%
Mitt Romney 0.1% 0.1% 82.1%
Bobby Jindal 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindsey Graham 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

* These cells represent the probability of the candidate winning the general election conditional upon winning the nomination. It is an estimate derived from the other estimates, not a standalone market. The accuracy of conditional probability estimates is highly sensitive to the liquidity in the other markets. Please use caution when interpreting these estimates.

Just for giggles, let’s take a look at the Democrats:

Democrats

Name Nomination General Conditional*
Hillary Clinton 67.4% 38.7% 57.5%
Joe Biden 20.7% 11.4% 55.0%
Bernie Sanders 12.0% 6.2% 51.5%
Elizabeth Warren 0.8% 0.5% 63.7%
Al Gore 0.4% 0.3% 77.0%
Martin OMalley 0.2% 0.1% 64.1%
Andrew Cuomo 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Lincoln Chafee 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

* These cells represent the probability of the candidate winning the general election conditional upon winning the nomination. It is an estimate derived from the other estimates, not a standalone market. The accuracy of conditional probability estimates is highly sensitive to the liquidity in the other markets. Please use caution when interpreting these estimates.

In other words, once all the shouting, eye-gouging and nuttings are over, the preponderance of bettors assume we’re in for yet another Clinton/Bush snoozefest.

Too depressing.

ReThug Betfair

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